Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their all-time high levels on Friday helped by impressive GDP data and fresh foreign fund inflows. Also, a rally in global markets added to the positive momentum in the equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 1,139.04 points to 73,639.34 -- its all-time peak -- in the late afternoon trade.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
Given the developments, analysts do not foresee a quick recovery.
Automobile retail sales in India declined 9 per cent year-on-year in September amid a massive buildup of passenger vehicle inventory due to sluggish demand, dealer's body FADA said on Monday, urging original equipment manufacturers to take corrective steps. The overall registrations declined to 17,23,330 units last month from 18,99,192 units in September 2023, as most of the categories including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers witnessed a year-on-year (Y-O-Y) drop.
The chemicals sector's recovery could be delayed until FY25 if the current trends of weak demand and flat pricing continue. Following a subdued September quarter, the revenue and profit performance of listed chemicals companies are anticipated to fall short of initial expectations of an improvement. Despite some price stability, the demand trajectory remains uncertain.
Net profit of 19 listed banks is likely to decline by 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for the quarter ended March (Q4FY25) mainly due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) as a result of rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts' estimates. Additionally, loan growth is expected to further slowdown amid low demand in certain secured products, stress in the unsecured segment, and a high cost to deposit (CD) ratio across the system.
Havells India, the country's largest listed consumer electrical company, reported a mixed performance in the 2024-25 (FY25) October-December quarter (Q3). While the top line benefited from festival demand, lower margins impacted operational performance.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
Punjab farmer leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal has ended his hunger strike which he began on November 26, 2022, to press for various demands of agitating farmers including a legal guarantee on the minimum support price (MSP) for crops. The announcement came after appeals from Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Union Minister of State for Railways Ravneet Singh Bittu. Dallewal said he would continue to fight for the MSP guarantee and other demands.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
FMCG major Hindustan Unilever Ltd on Wednesday reported a 19.18 per cent rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 2,989 crore in the December quarter.
Passenger vehicle dispatches in India from factories to dealers rose to record levels at over 43 lakh units in FY25, with utility vehicles accounting for 65 per cent of the total sales in the segment, industry body SIAM said on Tuesday. Passenger vehicle (PV) dispatches rose to 43,01,848 units in the last fiscal year, marking a 2 per cent increase compared to 42,18,750 units in FY 2023-24.
Among the 11 equity sub-categories, thematic funds received the highest net inflows at Rs 9,017 crore, followed by smallcap funds at Rs 5,721 crore and flexicap funds at Rs 5,698 crore.
Overall, volume growth is likely to be in the range of 3-8 per cent for two-wheelers and 5-7 per cent for passenger vehicles owing to healthy demand from urban and rural areas and pending order books.
The performance of banking and information technology (IT) stocks has had a significant impact on the composition of diversified mutual fund (MF) portfolios. Over the past two months, these sectors have become increasingly dominant, now constituting nearly 30 per cent of the total allocation in many diversified MF portfolios.
Stock market investors became richer by a whopping Rs 77.66 lakh crore in 2024, helped by an overall optimistic trend in equities, where the BSE Sensex surged over 8 per cent. Analysts said the year witnessed a tug of war between the bulls and bears marked by volatility but, despite the uncertainties around the world, the Indian markets sustained the pressure and delivered impressive returns.
'A key reason for the strong interest in IPOs has been an increased focus on profitability and reasonable pricing of deals.'
Employment in India saw a V-shaped recovery after being adversely impacted between April and June 2020 during the Covid lockdown and during April-June 2021, when the second wave struck, said Krishnamurthy V Subramanian, former chief economic advisor, in a paper released on Friday. Subramanian is now serving as executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). From the official survey data of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), the paper titled 'Employment in India: Data Sources, Facts, and Trends' showed that both worker-population ratio (WPR) and labour force participation rate (LFPR) were higher, while the unemployment rate was lower during October-December 2022 when compared to the corresponding quarter in 2019.
Zomato emerged as the biggest gainer, followed by Reliance, Nestle, Asian Paints and Power Grid.
After lagging behind other segments in the automotive (auto) space over the past few years, two-wheelers are expected to reverse their volume underperformance. After witnessing a 36.3 per cent volume decline over the 2018-19 (FY19) through 2021-22 (FY22) periods, the sector staged a recovery in 2022-23 (FY23), with volumes rising 17 per cent. While volumes are still a quarter lower than the FY19 peak of 21 million units, a double-digit growth trajectory is expected to prolong.
Stock Market News today, PSU banks: The year 2024 was a roller-coaster ride for Indian stock markets, marked by volatility driven by the Lok Sabha elections, Union Budget 2024, a slowdown in corporate earnings, and sticky inflation. Geopolitical tensions - particularly between Israel and Iran in West Asia - along with various stimulus announcements by China and yen carry trade rocked the equity markets throughout the year.
According to global consultancy firm Grant Thornton, 57 per cent of privately held businesses in 14 of the world's leading emerging markets indicated that they were optimistic about the prospects of their country's economy in the year ahead, while just 2 per cent in mature economies believed so.
UPL, the country's largest agrochemical company, had a weak July-September quarter (Q2), reporting a sharp fall in revenues across geographies. Overall, the revenues were down 19 per cent on the back of lower agrochemical prices and inventory destocking. While the overall volumes were down 7 per cent, prices fell by 15 per cent. Volume decline in the European market was on the back of high channel inventory and product bans while in India the fall by 27 per cent was on account of muted demand for segments such as cotton and pulses.
Investors' wealth soared by Rs 10.58 lakh crore in three days of the market rally, where the BSE benchmark jumped over 2 per cent, and hit an all-time high on Monday. Extending its winning momentum to the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 363.20 points or 0.49 per cent to settle at 74,014.55. During the day, it zoomed 603.27 points or 0.81 per cent to hit its record high of 74,254.62.
'I am optimistic about the Budget because of the fiscal discipline the government has committed to.'
Once a quality stock has been bought, the next challenge is to hold on to it -- no mean feat in this age of information overload and incessant noise.
Value mutual funds have witnessed robust investor interest, garnering Rs 22,757 crore in inflows in 2024, nearly double the amount seen in 2023, fueled by impressive returns generated by the segment. This surge reflects a shift in investor focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
L&T, ITC, Infosys and RIL among the top gainers.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
Passenger vehicle sales are expected to experience muted growth in the current financial year.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Adani Ports, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel and Reliance Industries were the biggest gainers. NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
Opposition MPs in India's Rajya Sabha raised concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariff threats, demanding the government clarify its response and engage in discussions with opposition parties. Leaders like P Chidambaram and Sagarika Ghose warned of potential economic repercussions, including depressed exports, lower FDI, and a significant tariff burden. The debate also touched on other issues such as the government's economic policies, demonetization, and the impact of GST on common citizens.
Tata Elxsi (TelX) reported a weak Q3FY25, with a sharp deceleration in the transportation vertical. However, recent deals in the Asia-Pacific (APAC), higher mix of original equipment makers (OEMs) and partnership with Qualcomm will improve growth. FY25 is the third successive financial year of revenue growth deceleration and second successive financial year of profit deceleration.
Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
Dalal Street minnows stole the show in 2024, giving handsome returns to investors, helped by a largely optimistic trend in the stock market and impressive retail investors' participation. Analysts attributed the positive trend in the equity markets, where the benchmark indices shattered many records this year, to robust domestic liquidity, strong fundamentals of the Indian economy, and policy continuity.
The Nifty, after dropping below the 6K mark on Tuesday, once again gained strength. The index, after flip-flopping between the zones ended finally at 5,999 - up 10 points. BSE market breadth was weak. Out of 3,085 stocks traded, 1,872 declined while 1,065 advanced.
Have the markets already played out their dynamics before the economy has even properly taken off? Are we now destined for a period of mediocre returns despite a strong economy? asks Akash Prakash.
The other prominent gainers were Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro. Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
The stock of mall developer and commercial real estate major, The Phoenix Mills (Phoenix), is up 26 per cent since its business update in the third week of January. The gains came on strong December quarter performance and the consumption boost in the Budget which is expected to help the company sustain its growth trends.
